Evening Ebola Update, Fri, 10/17: Virginia Tech Math Model Shows NO halting EBOV in West Africa   Leave a comment

10/17/14

Dear Colleagues:

l.  Reuters reports that President Obama has appointed a ‘manager’ (not to be called ‘czar’) to streamline U.S. measures to contain any EBOV spread in the U.S.  Mr. Klain, a lawyer and former COS for VP Gore and Biden, is a Washington insider who will report to Ms. Monaco, who also handles counterintelligence (ISIL) for President Obama.  Mr. Klain has no medical training or experience.  See: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/17/us-health-ebola-usa-idUSKCN0I61BO20141017 for full details on Mr. Klain.

2.  Doctors Without Borders (MSF) Monthly Bulletin has an article by one of its EBOV Medical Directors discussing which vaccines are most promising.  See: http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/article/ebola-experimental-treatments-and-vaccines for this MSF Medical Director’s comments.

3.  Note to the right side of the Medical Director’s comments, a small notice that GSK has stated their vaccine will come to West Africa in late 2015.  See:   http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/article/msf-responds-gsk-remarks-its-too-late-ebola-vaccine.  The world (U.N, U.S., and WHO) needs to convince China to rescind their $490 Million fine to GSK in order for GSK vaccine to be available in West Africa in early 2015.

4.  PLoS Current Outbreaks has posted a new article on mathematical modeling of EBOV spread in Sierra Leone and Liberia.  The authors from Virginia Tech plugged recently published data points (R0, incubation period, contact tracing %, hospitalization %, experimental drugs) into a formula used for several prior EBOV outbreaks and concluded that contact tracing needs to be near 100% and hospitalization of EBOV patients near 100% for the epidemic to be halted.  At the current contact tracing % and hospitalization %, the epidemic will not be halted.  Experimental drugs even if successful do not affect significantly the spread of EBOV.  See: http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/obk-14-0043-modeling-the-impact-of-interventions-on-an-epidemic-of-ebola-in-sierra-leone-and-Liberia/ for the entire article.

5.  NY Times has posted the new CDC guidelines for PPEs at Level 3 exposure to EBOV patients.  Note that North Shore Long Island Jewish Hospital has moved to Level 3 PPEs for all EBOV HCW since the second nurse taking care of Mr. Duncan developed EBOV.  This Level 3 PPE adds: sealed hood, taped seams, PAPRs, impermeable outer gown, and heavier outer gloves.  See: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/15/us/changes-to-ebola-protection-worn-by-us-hospital-workers.html?ref=health for illustrations of Level 2 and Level 3 PPEs. Note that Level 3 PPEs still do not match PPEs of MSF HCW in West Africa (MSF uses full body suits).

RGL, MD

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Posted October 18, 2014 by levittrg in Ebola

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