Evening Ebola Update, Sun, Nov 2: Wikipedia the ‘Go To’ site/Forecast ‘bad’ for S.L. & Guinea to Nov 15th   Leave a comment

11/2/14

Dear Colleagues:

l.  NY Times reports today that Wikipedia pages on ‘Ebola Viral Disease’ have had 17 million ‘hits’.  This ‘hit’ volume matches hits on WHO Ebola website and CDC Ebola website.  The WHO/CDC websites are much more extensive than Wikipedia, but these sites are aimed at scientists and HCW, not lay people.  The Wikipedia website is aimed at lay people, is concise, gives only the facts, not research papers, and is constantly updated, including on weekends.

2.  USA Today reports on the West Point slum in Liberia which is under quarantine.  Food supplies come from charities, and these supplies are dwindling.  There is no running water in West Point, few private toilets and only 4 communal toilets, and markets are poor because people will not buy produce from West Pointers for fear of EBOV.

3.  PLoS Currents Outbreaks posted on October 28th an article from Columbia University by Shaman, et.al. on forecasting of growth of the EBOV epidemic in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea.  The article uses observation, dynamic modeling, and Bayesian inference to predict EBOV future caseload.  Observational data ended on September 28th.  The authors limit their forecasting to the following 6 weeks; i.e., November 15th.  The authors forecast continued exponential growth in EBOV in Sierra Leone and Guinea, despite the slowing of the EBOV epidemic in Liberia to November 15th.  See: http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/inference-and-forecast-of-the-current-west-african-ebola-outbreak-in-guinea-sierra-leone-and-liberia/ for the complete article.

U.S. midterm elections are on this coming Tuesday.  The latest polls of registered voters shows 77% are voting based on the economy, health care, Medicare, etc. and only 19% are voting based on ISIL, EBOV, or immigration.  So there won’t be much politicizing of EBOV these next two days.

RGL, MD

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Posted November 3, 2014 by levittrg in Ebola

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