Evening Ebola Update, 1/15: Pandemics not in ‘top 4’ at Davos/See WHO chapter on what is needed in 2015 to fight EBOV/Liberia needs 85% pt. hospitalization to end epidemic by March   Leave a comment

1/15/15

Dear Colleagues:

l.  The Telegraph reports that  the World Economic Forum has released its list of four most pressing issues for the next 10 years.  These issues are: state conflicts, access to clean water, state collapse, and unemployment.  See the entire at: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11347752/These-are-the-four-biggest-threats-to-the-world-right-now.html  Pandemics due to zoonotic infectious diseases is not on their top four list.

2,  WHO has prepared a 14 chapter review on the origin of the current EBOV epidemic, how it has been treated, what went wrong, what went right, and what needs are for 2015.  Four big lessons learned this past year were: EBOV crushes marginal health care systems (one physician said: “Ebola kills health systems”); countries must ‘jump’ on EBOV when the first case(s) are reported; infection control measures must be integrated with one another; local communities must be engaged as partners.  What is needed in 2015 is rebuilding  better health care systems in West Africa so that an immediate response is possible, safe burials; isolation of possible Ebola cases immediately; effective vaccines.  See the entire 14 chapter summary at: http://who.int/csr/disease/ebola/one-year-report/response-in-2015/en

3.  PLoS Biology posted on-line 13 January an article by Drake, et.al. from the University of Georgia, modelling the outcome for EBOV in Liberia in 2015 based on the percentage of EBOV patients who isolate themselves in hospital.  If 70% of EBOV patients are admitted to hospital and thereby isolated from healthy Liberians, then the EBOV epidemic will stabilize and not increase in numbers of cases/week.  The disease will become endemic in Liberia.  But if 85% of EBOV patients are admitted to hospital and thereby isolated, then Liberia will be free of EBOV by March, 2015.  See: http://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002056

RGL, MD

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Posted January 16, 2015 by levittrg in Ebola

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