Evening Ebola Update, Fri, 1/30: Shortfall of $1 Billion for Jan to June/Isol. pts by Day 3 of sx and Isol. 50% of contacts to stop EBOV/CDC says significant decrease in EBOV in Africa   Leave a comment

1/30/15

Dear Colleagues:

l.  David Nabarro, M.D., the U.N.’s Special Envoy for Ebola, has issued a detailed plan for ‘bringing to zero’ the EBOV epidemic in Africa. The effort will cost an additional $1 Billion from January-June, 2015.  That $1 Billion is a shortfall; efforts are underway to raise the money.  The detailed plan for ‘zero’ EBOV cases with Introductions by Dr. Jim Kim and Dr. Nabarro is at: https://ebolaresponse.un.org/sites/default/files/ebolaoutlook.pdf

2.  The Lancet reports 31 January that the allocated emergency funds for EBOV epidemic in the U.S. budget remained at $1.5 Billion despite the NIH budget reduction.  See comments on how the $1.5 Billion will be spent and over what time period at: http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(15)60138-6/fulltext

3.  ACAPS has issued a Humanitarian Needs Assessment Guide on-line to guide NGO’s and others in assessing needs and delivering needs in the event of a humanitarian disaster.  See the extensive guide at: http://www.acaps.org/img/documents/h-humanitarian-needs-assessment-the-good-enough-guide.pdf.  Note that the section on ‘Field Visits’ (pages 68-72) does not include assessment of diseases in the field area prior to visit, communication with locals prior to visit, or input from anthropologists on local culture prior to visit.  The current EBOV epidemic has taught everyone that all three items need to be done pre-field visit.

4.  CDC MMWR today gives an update on the EBOV epidemic in West Africa as of 25 January.  There are a total reported caseload of 22,000+ patients and total deaths of 8,800+.  The week ending 24 January had 11 cases reported in Sierra Leone, < 1 case reported from Liberia, and 3 cases reported from Guinea each day.  See the entire MMWR at: http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm64e0130a1.htm?s_cid=mm64e0130a1_e

5.  PLoS Currents Outbreaks has an article by Webb, et. al. from Department of Mathematics at Vanderbilt University, Tennessee, showing by computer modelling that isolation of infected EBOV patients in West Africa by Day 3 of symptoms and contact tracing/isolation of 50% or more of contacts can stop the EBOV epidemic.  See the article at: http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/a-model-of-the-2014-ebola-epidemic-in-west-africa-with-contact-tracing-2/

RGL, MD

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Posted January 30, 2015 by levittrg in Ebola

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