Evening Ebola Update, Tues, 2/10: EBOV cases rise again last week/NYT Editorial on WHO w/o value/Modelling programs only as good as data submitted to computer   Leave a comment

2/10/15

Dear Colleagues:

l.  Voice of America reports a significant increase in new EBOV cases last week in all three West African countries-Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea.  This is the second straight week of increased new EBOV cases.  See: http://www.voanews.com/content/who-says-ebola-deaths-infections-on-the-rise/2636459.html

2.  NY Times reports on ‘shortcomings’ of WHO’s bureaucracy in the WHO response to EBOV epidemic in West Africa last year.  The article is written by The Editorial Board.  I don’t know why the NY Times is now playing the ‘blame game’.  WHO’s Executive Board addressed last year’s shortcomings in session last week, and passed resolutions calling for ‘rapid response teams’ fully funded in advance to be deployed at the first sign of a global health emergency.  See: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/10/opinion/reform-after-the-ebola-debacle.html?_r=0

3.  PLoS has posted on-line an article by Camacho, et. al. from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine re: a new modelling program which tracked R0 (how many other persons an EBOV infected patient infects) in various districts in Sierra Leone.  The authors found that after December, 2014, R0 <1, so EBOV’s spread had been stopped, and the EBOV beds available in Sierra Leone were sufficient in number.  Yet Voice of America tells us today that EBOV cases are now increasing in Sierra Leone (see above).  My conclusion is that modelling programs are only as good as the data entered into the program.  If persons or officials choose to ‘hide’ EBOV cases, or bury EBOV patients on their own, then the data entered into these modelling programs is inaccurate, and the results generated also inaccurate.  See: http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/temporal-changes-in-ebola-transmission-in-sierra-leone-and-implications-for-control-requirements-a-real-time-modelling-study/

4.  A World Report article on lessons learned in Lancet Ebola Resources posted today by Petherick will not open on my computer or laptop.  I hope the article opens in other countries because the author has her ‘finger on the pulse’ in previous articles..

RGL, MD

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Posted February 10, 2015 by levittrg in Ebola

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